After several weeks of mild oceanic weather, a significant meteorological shift is occurring this week in the capital and its region. Temperatures are set to drop dramatically from Tuesday, December 24, with maximums struggling to exceed 0°C across much of northern and eastern France. This change is due to the establishment of a Scandinavian anticyclone, bringing what meteorologists call a “Moscow-Paris” current – a cold, dry continental air mass descending directly from Eastern Europe.
Drastic Temperature Drop Expected
As of Monday morning, Météo France has placed the Tarn and Aveyron regions under an orange alert for snow. For Paris and the Île-de-France region, the change is expected to be radical. Throughout early December, temperatures have been unusually mild, well above seasonal norms. However, from Tuesday, December 23, the wind will shift to the East, and continental influence will take over. Christmas Day is forecast to be particularly cold, with maximum temperatures struggling to rise above 0°C across the North, Centre, and East, including Paris and the entire Île-de-France. While not record-breaking cold for the season, the biting cold will be amplified by a noticeable northeasterly breeze and limited sunshine due to persistent cloud cover.
Mornings will be even colder, with minimum temperatures between -1°C and 1°C expected in the Parisian region between December 24 and 28, according to France Info Météo data. Although severe frosts are not anticipated due to the persistent cloud cover limiting nocturnal temperature drops, the mercury will remain significantly below recent weeks’ values. This continental cold is expected to persist until Friday, December 27, before slightly moderating during the weekend of December 27 and 28.
Will Paris See Snow for Christmas?
The question on everyone’s mind is: will it snow in Paris for Christmas 2025? Forecasts remain uncertain, but some flakes are indeed possible. Between the evening of December 24 and December 25, a small upper-level depression is expected to cross the country, bringing temperatures between -8 and -10°C at 850 hPa (approximately 1500 meters altitude). This barometric trough could trigger light snowfall between Rhône-Alpes, Franche-Comté, Burgundy, Centre, Massif Central, Pays de la Loire, and Brittany.
Specifically for Île-de-France and the Parisian basin, Météo-France mentions a possible dusting of snow between Brittany, Pays de la Loire, and our region. The prediction of snowfall remains highly uncertain, as it depends on just a few degrees and the exact position of this cold upper-level air mass. Some weather models suggest that the Parisian region could see 1 to 2 centimeters of snow accumulating on the ground in Paris and the inner suburbs, with 5 to 7 centimeters possible in the western half of the region and 2 to 5 centimeters in the eastern half.
It’s important to remember that Paris is not a city particularly conducive to lasting snow. The thermometer in Paris is now often above the values necessary for snow to accumulate on the ground. In December, even with an average night temperature of 3°C, snow accumulation remains fragile. The last time a significant layer of snow was seen in Paris in December was in 2010, with up to 12 centimeters on the ground. This year, we are far from that scenario, but a white Christmas atmosphere could still be present, even if ephemeral.
Weather Outlook Beyond Christmas
The cold is expected to persist well beyond Christmas. A shift in the current towards the north, anticipated on Sunday, December 28, or Monday, December 29, will bring more maritime polar air. Some snow showers could occur on Monday, December 29, but with temperatures likely higher than in the middle of the week, resulting in flurries that do not accumulate on the ground. According to ECMWF model projections, cold weather is expected to continue at least through the first week of January 2026.
The Scandinavian anticyclone is expected to shift between Scotland and Iceland, making way for slightly more humid but also colder air descending directly from Scandinavia. Temperature anomalies predicted for the period of December 29, 2025, to January 5, 2026, appear to be more pronounced than during Christmas week. A more significant cold wave is not entirely ruled out in early January, with the possibility of snow. These forecasts, of course, are subject to refinement in the coming days, but one thing is certain: winter cold has finally decided to make an appearance after weeks of absence.
If you’re looking for ways to enjoy the winter ambiance despite the cold, Paris and Île-de-France offer numerous options to warm up: Christmas markets, temporary ice rinks, or cozy tea rooms for a tea time. The main thing is to dress warmly before going out, as with the easterly wind and often cloudy sky, the sensation of cold will be very present. Don’t forget your gloves, scarves, and hats to fully enjoy the festivities while staying warm. To follow the evolution of the meteorological situation, regularly consult the bulletins from Meteo-Paris.com and Météo-France, which update their forecasts daily.
Source: https://www.sortiraparis.com/actualites/a-paris/articles/338687-neige-a-paris-pour-noel-un-froid-polaire-arrive-en-ile-de-france
