For the first time since 2010, snow graced the plains for Christmas. This initial cold snap could be followed by a second one around the New Year. Should we expect a wintry start to 2026 in France?
Cold and Snow to Kick Off 2026?
For several days now, some weather scenarios have been forecasting very wintry conditions for the New Year period. This is particularly true for the American model, which anticipates a strengthening of the Azores High extending to Greenland by the very end of 2025. This configuration could lead to a depression plunging into Central Europe, bringing a polar air mass from Scandinavia towards France around January 1, 2026. If this modeling proves accurate, France would experience a cold and humid New Year and early days of 2026, with frequent snowfall. [meteo-paris.com]
However, it must be noted that the weather outlook for Europe around the turn of 2026 remains uncertain. While most models do foresee a polar air drop over the continent, its precise location is subject to significant uncertainties. According to the European model, the Atlantic High would be closer to France, encompassing the British Isles, meaning the very cold air would be propelled more towards Central and Eastern Europe. If this scenario materializes, France would escape intense cold and snow, experiencing only a typical cold spell with little precipitation. [meteo-paris.com]
Is January Colder Than Initially Expected?
After the Christmas cold snap, the air mass is expected to warm up for a few days. This warming will be more pronounced in the south of France, as cold conditions will persist at lower altitudes in the north. Subsequently, almost all scenarios predict a new cooling trend around the New Year. For early 2026, most scenarios indicate cold temperatures, although there are notable disparities between very cold scenarios (close to -10°C at 1500m altitude in Paris) and simply cool scenarios (slightly above 0°C at 1500m). [meteo-paris.com]
This beginning of 2026 therefore seems less mild than initially anticipated. Until early December, a rather clear mild anomaly was expected over a large part of Europe. However, more recent models restrict the mild conditions to the northern part of the continent (especially Scandinavia) and instead foresee January 2026 temperatures in line with seasonal averages from the Iberian Peninsula to Ukraine. It would therefore be quite cold overall, with a potentially frequent continental flow. Of course, this monthly average anomaly smooths out (and masks) potential cold (or mild) spells that could occur over a few days.
Long-Term Forecasts and Uncertainties
Seasonal forecasts, while improving, still carry a significant margin of error, typically around 40-60%. This means that while a colder January is now more probable, a milder outcome or one closer to seasonal norms cannot be ruled out. These long-term projections provide a general trend rather than precise daily weather. The current warming climate also tends to bias models towards milder forecasts, making it challenging to predict colder-than-normal months far in advance. [meteo-paris.com]
Despite the overall trend, brief but intense cold spells are still possible. These
