You thought you could put away your down jackets and mittens? Not so fast! While France is currently enjoying a remarkable thaw for the season, with temperatures comfortably exceeding January averages, meteorologists are closely monitoring the evolving situation in Northern Europe. Since early December 2025, Scandinavia and Siberia have been experiencing one of the most intense cold spells in recent years.
Current Warm Spell: A Brief Respite
For several days, France has benefited from a south-southwesterly oceanic flow carrying mild air from the Atlantic. This phenomenon contrasts with the colder continental air masses from the east. Consequently, morning and daytime temperatures are significantly above seasonal averages, eliminating any risk of frost. In some regions, like the Basque Country, maximums reach up to 20°C, while 10°C or more is observed across much of the country. This warming, though not exceptional for January, stands out for its duration and homogeneity. This mild weather is expected to continue for another ten days, with no significant interruptions. During this period, no snow or frost is anticipated nationwide. However, this mildness is accompanied by high humidity in certain areas, particularly in Brittany and the Gulf of Lion, where precipitation is accumulating, requiring close monitoring of river levels via the Vigicrues network.
Impending Arctic Blast: When to Expect the Change
Climate models anticipate a significant shift by the end of the third week of January. High-pressure systems could gain influence over the northern Atlantic and Northern Europe, favoring the establishment of a continental flow that would transport cold air from the north or east of the continent towards France. In this context, temperatures could drop below seasonal norms, showing an average deficit of -1°C. This winter turn could occur as early as January 26 and extend until February 1. The probability of a winter episode, with the possibility of new snowfall in some regions, therefore increases at the end of the month.
For this configuration to materialize, an anticyclonic block would need to settle towards Scandinavia, opening the way for a continental advection from the east to the northeast, what meteorologists call a “Moscow-Paris” scenario. A weakening of the polar vortex, sometimes linked to stratospheric warming, can also favor this type of breakdown.
Uncertainty Remains for Paris Snowfall
At the current stage of forecasts, the signal of a continental cooling at the end of the month is real but still too scattered to be confirmed with certainty. The European ECMWF model is, this Monday, among the coldest for Western Europe, while other scenarios converge but with less intensity. Everything will depend on the precise location of the anticyclonic block: if it shifts slightly, the cold air mainly slides towards Central Europe; if it moves further west, oceanic flows regain the upper hand and slow down the arrival of cold in France. The occurrence and intensity of a possible cold episode in Île-de-France will therefore depend on fine synoptic adjustments that will only be decided closer to the deadline. It should be remembered that global warming makes these events less frequent but more intense when they occur, as explained by La Chaîne Météo.
In short, if you are looking to anticipate your Parisian outings at the end of January, keep an eye on Météo-France forecasts in the coming days. More generally, February 2026 could also experience other cold sequences, according to initial major trends. In the meantime, enjoy the current thaw to discover the capital’s parks and gardens without having to pull out your scarf! To follow the evolution of the meteorological situation in real time, consult the websites of Météo-France, La Chaîne Météo, and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. And if snow does fall in Paris, take the opportunity to discover the most beautiful spots to enjoy a snow-covered capital, such as the Sacré-Cœur or the Trocadéro gardens.
Source: https://www.sortiraparis.com/actualites/a-paris/articles/339844-neige-et-froid-polaire-attendue-pour-fin-janvier-a-paris-et-en-ile-de-france
